All perfect praise be to Allaah, The Lord of the Worlds. I testify that there is none worthy of worship except Allaah, and that Muhammad, sallallaahu ‘alayhi wa sallam, is His slave and Messenger.
He is either truthful about what he says. In this case, there is no harm on him (i.e. he is not required to do anything).
Or, he is lying, which is a Yameen Ghamoos (an oath by which one is immersed into the Hellfire and it is one of the great major sins).
Or he gives an oath because of being certain or believing that something is most likely true, and then it turns out that it is not so. There is no expiation required for this kind of oath. Ibn Qudaamah said: “If a person gives an oath on something believing it to be as he believes, and then it turns out that it is not so, then there is no expiation on him, as this is an idle oath (laghw).” He said: “In general, there is no expiation on an oath for something in the past, because it is of three kinds: if a person swears on something true, then there is no expiation for it according to the consensus of the scholars. If a person deliberately lies, then it is a Ghamoos oath, and there is no expiation for it, as it is too grave to have an expiation. And if a person swears believing that it is the truth and then it turns out otherwise, there is no expiation for it, as it is idle oath (laghw).” [End of quote]
If the matter is related to something that will happen in the future and one swears believing that it will happen but it finally did not happen, then he would be breaking his oath and he is obliged to offer an expiation for it, according to the majority of scholars and contrary to the Hanbali School. We have clarified this in Fatwa 70643.
The ruling in case of certainty/conviction (Yaqeen) is like the ruling in case of predominant likelihood (ghalabat ath-Thann). Ath-Thamar ad-Daani fi Sharh Risaalat Abu Zayd al-Qayrawaani (a Maaliki book) reads: “(The same thing applies if one has Yaqeen), meaning that one has conviction in one’s mind that it is exactly as the matter is in reality....., and strong belief is like conviction.”
For more benefit, please refer to Fatwa 90924.
Allaah Knows best.